In this talk we start with an overview of the modern theory of
portfolios, based on Stochastic Analysis. We introduce the notion of
relative arbitrage and provide simple, easy-to-test criteria for the
existence of such arbitrage in equity markets. These criteria
postulate essentially that the excess growth rate of the market
portfolio, a positive quantity that can be estimated or even computed
from a given market structure, be "sufficiently large". We show that
conditions satisfying these criteria are manifestly present in the
US equity market, and construct explicit portfolios under these
conditions. One such condition, market diversity, emerges when the
volatility structure is bounded.
We then construct examples of abstract markets in which the criteria
hold. We study in some detail a specific example of a non-diverse
abstract market which is volatility-stabilized, in that the return
from the market portfolio has constant drift and variance rates, while
the smallest stocks are assigned the largest volatilities and
individual stocks fluctuate widely. An interesting probabilistic
structure emerges in which time changes, Bessel processes, and the
asymptotic theory for planar Brownian motion, play crucial roles.
Several open questions are raised for further study. (Joint work with
E. Robert Fernholz.)
See also
http://www.math.columbia.edu/~ik/FernKarSPT.pdf
for a paper of interest.