Abstract:

Bestselling books by Nassim Nicholas Taleb "Fooled by Randomness" and "The Black Swan" will be discussed in relationship to some aspects of Monte Carlo modeling of financial series. A short movie and a computer simulation will accompany the presentation.

Why did people use to play dice? Was it more than an entertainment? We will go back in history (briefly) to ancient Egypt, Greece, and Incan empire. We will return to the concept of randomization, which can assist in making sound decisions.