School of Mathematics
University of Minnesota
NASA Earth

Minnesota Mathematics of Climate Seminar

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Earthrise

Coming Attractions

Applying a flow-kick framework to understand how the spatial spread of populations affects population response to extreme climate events

Martha Torstenson

Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, University of Minnesota

11:15 am CST, Tuesday, February 27, 2024

570 Vincent Hall (also streamed via Zoom)

Animal populations are being affected by climate change, including changing patterns of extreme climate events. It is clear that the effect of extreme climate events on populations depends on population patterns of movement and space use, but it is unclear how. For example, populations that are more spread out across the landscape may be affected less severely by any given spatially restricted extreme climate event, but they may also be affected more frequently by some spatially restricted extreme climate event. We use a flow-kick model to demonstrate that populations that are subject to more frequent, smaller-magnitude kicks (due to being more spread out) are less likely to crash than populations subject to less frequent, higher-magnitude kicks (due to being less spread out). Although these results are broadly applicable, our study offers a novel explanation for differences between migratory and non-migratory populations to extreme climate events since migratory populations have a tendency to aggregate at high densities. This model also offers testable hypotheses regarding the effect of population dispersion on population response to changing extreme climate event regimes. In my talk, I will walk through the structure of my model and some of the preliminary results. This is a work in progress and I would be very excited to get feedback!"

Time and Location

The meetings are held in 570 Vincent Hall at 11:15 am Central Time on Tuesdays, followed by an extended discussion over lunch at the Bona Restaurant. If you would like to participate remotely, please contact Richard McGehee <mcgehee@umn.edu>.

Organizers

Richard McGehee, School of Mathematics, <mcgehee@umn.edu>
Clarence Lehman, College of Biological Sciences, <lehman@umn.edu>

Description

This seminar examines some of the simpler mathematical models of climate in the recent literature. Participants are encouraged to read a paper and report on it to the other participants, but passive participation is also welcomed. Course credit can be arranged either through the School of Mathematics or the Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior by arrangement with the organizers.

Last update: February 26, 2024
©2024 Richard McGehee